Gwangyang Football Stadium · Referee H. Kim · Analysis updated 05:02 UTC
Jeonnam Dragons vs Hwaseong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.96 expected goals for Jeonnam Dragons and 1.39 for Hwaseong, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Hwaseong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hwaseong win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
0.96 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jeonnam Dragons home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hwaseong away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hwaseong to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 26% / 27% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.96 goals for Jeonnam Dragons and 1.39 for Hwaseong, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–09.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 53.7% vs market 44.9%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 44.9% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 74.0% | 1.35 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.0% | 27.2% | 3.68 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 1.91 | 46.7% | 46.8% | 2.14 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.8% | 1.37 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 26.2% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.75 | 54.0% | 53.2% | 1.88 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.1% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Jeonnam Dragons
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Suwon City FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimpo Citizen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheonan City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Hwaseong · 1-0 (W)
Hwaseong
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Seongnam FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ansan Greeners · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cheonan City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheongju · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonnam Dragons · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 28 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 54 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 54 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
| 5 | Busan I Park | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Hwaseong | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 45 |
| 7 | Asan Mugunghwa | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Gimpo Citizen | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 38 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 10 | Cheongju | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | -12 | 32 |
| 11 | Seongnam FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 31 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -23 | 25 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -17 | 24 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -33 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hwaseong win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.