Gwangyang Football Stadium · Referee Kim Yong-Woo · Analysis updated 02:28 UTC
Jeonnam Dragons vs Suwon City FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Jeonnam Dragons and 1.47 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Suwon City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Suwon City FC win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jeonnam Dragons home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Suwon City FC away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.25 (model 51.9% vs market 41.1%, edge +10.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.25 | 41.1% | 51.9% | 1.93 | +10.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.1% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.85 | 48.2% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.3% | 26.3% | 3.80 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.83 | 51.5% | 51.5% | 1.94 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.50 | 25.5% | 25.2% | 3.97 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 75.4% | 74.8% | 1.34 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.9% | 48.1% | 2.08 | -10.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Jeonnam Dragons
- 2026-09-19T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Suwon City FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimpo Citizen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimhae City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Cheonan City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Hwaseong · 1-0 (W)
Suwon City FC
- 2026-08-22T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimhae City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Suwon Bluewings · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Paju Citizen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Daegu FC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-10T10:30:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 0-5 Suwon City FC (K League 2)
- 2021-04-14T10:00:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 1-1 Suwon City FC (FA Cup)
- 2020-10-18T04:30:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 4-3 Suwon City FC (K League 2)
- 2020-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 2-2 Suwon City FC (K League 2)
- 2020-06-28T09:00:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 1-2 Suwon City FC (K League 2)
- 2019-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 3-2 Suwon City FC (K League 2)
- 2019-09-01T10:00:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 2-2 Suwon City FC (K League 2)
- 2019-05-11T10:00:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 1-2 Suwon City FC (K League 2)
- 2019-04-13T06:00:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 1-1 Suwon City FC (K League 2)
- 2016-09-25T07:00:00.000Z · Jeonnam Dragons 0-0 Suwon City FC (K League 1)
K League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 28 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 54 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 54 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
| 5 | Busan I Park | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Hwaseong | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 45 |
| 7 | Asan Mugunghwa | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Gimpo Citizen | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 38 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 10 | Cheongju | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | -12 | 32 |
| 11 | Seongnam FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 31 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -23 | 25 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -17 | 24 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -33 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Suwon City FC win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.