· Analysis updated 18:54 UTC
jerv vs Arendal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.07 expected goals for jerv and 0.73 for Arendal, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives jerv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
jerv win
68.6% probability
Expected goals
2.07 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
jerv home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates jerv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 19% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.07 goals for jerv and 0.73 for Arendal, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 45%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.0%
- 1–012.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–09.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 54.7% vs market 44.6%, edge +10.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 44.6% | 54.7% | 1.83 | +10.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.10 | 30.3% | 31.4% | 3.18 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 7.50 | 11.9% | 12.0% | 8.33 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 87.9% | 88.0% | 1.14 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.60 | 19.4% | 19.4% | 5.15 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.30 | 68.7% | 68.6% | 1.46 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 81.8% | 80.6% | 1.24 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 55.4% | 45.3% | 2.21 | -10.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
jerv
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sotra · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arendal · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lysekloster · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Notodden · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kvik Halden · 2-0 (W)
Arendal
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jerv | 24 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 56 |
| 2 | Brattvåg | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Bjarg | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 50 |
| 4 | Mjondalen | 25 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 50 |
| 5 | Sotra | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 27 | 45 |
| 6 | Notodden | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 35 |
| 7 | Træff | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | -7 | 35 |
| 8 | Kvik Halden | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Arendal | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -5 | 31 |
| 10 | Pors Grenland | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 30 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -18 | 22 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 25 | 4 | 1 | 20 | -28 | 13 |
| 14 | Vidar | 25 | 3 | 4 | 18 | -42 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is jerv win, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.