· Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
jerv vs Egersund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for jerv and 1.22 for Egersund, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives jerv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
jerv win
61.1% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
jerv home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Egersund away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates jerv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for jerv and 1.22 for Egersund, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–07.9%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
jerv
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sotra · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arendal · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lysekloster · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Notodden · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kvik Halden · 2-0 (W)
Egersund
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs hodd · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ranheim · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ODD Ballklubb · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs jerv · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongsvinger · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is jerv win, at 61.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.