· Analysis updated 13:21 UTC
Jesenice vs Beltinci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Jesenice and 1.98 for Beltinci, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Beltinci the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beltinci win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jesenice home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beltinci away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beltinci to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Jesenice and 1.98 for Beltinci, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.4%
- 0–210.3%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.45 | 37.2% | 39.2% | 2.55 | +2.0 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.45 | 64.2% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 5.40 | 16.9% | 17.9% | 5.59 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 1.50 | 60.8% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.15 | 43.4% | 43.5% | 2.30 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 53.4% | 53.5% | 1.87 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.65 | 56.6% | 56.5% | 1.77 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.95 | 46.6% | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.15 | 79.2% | 78.8% | 1.27 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.10 | 22.3% | 21.3% | 4.69 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.09 | 83.6% | 82.2% | 1.22 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.60 | 35.8% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Jesenice
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Triglav · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dren Vrhnika · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bilje · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilirija · 3-1 (W)
Beltinci
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bilje · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilirija · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Krka · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tabor Sežana · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Dekani · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beltinci win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.