Jesenice vs Brežice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Jesenice and 0.85 for Brežice, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Jesenice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jesenice win

70.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.35 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jesenice home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brežice away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jesenice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for Jesenice and 0.85 for Brežice, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Jesenice win71%

Draw17%

Brežice win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

2–011.3%
1–09.6%
2–19.6%
3–08.8%
1–18.1%

Recent form

Jesenice

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brežice · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Triglav · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dren Vrhnika · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bilje · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilirija · 3-1 (W)

Brežice

2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Krško · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jesenice · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Primorje · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Ljubljana · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. SNL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tabor Sežana	11	9	1	1	15	28
2	Beltinci	11	8	1	2	17	25
3	Triglav	11	8	1	2	16	25
4	Rudar	11	6	0	5	4	18
5	Bilje	11	6	0	5	-2	18
6	Jesenice	11	5	2	4	3	17
7	Bistrica	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Slovan Ljubljana	11	5	2	4	-4	17
9	Ilirija	11	5	1	5	5	16
10	Dekani	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Dren Vrhnika	11	4	2	5	-4	14
12	Primorje	11	2	4	5	-6	10
13	Krško	11	2	3	6	-10	9
14	Dravinja	11	2	2	7	-14	8
15	Krka	11	2	1	8	-10	7
16	Brežice	11	1	3	7	-9	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jesenice win, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.