Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs AS Marsa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and 0.70 for AS Marsa, a combined total of 1.47. That distribution gives Jeunesse Sportive Omrane the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 18% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

70.5% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.77 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Marsa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 33% / 37% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and 0.70 for AS Marsa, a combined 1.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win33%

Draw37%

AS Marsa win30%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

63%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals43%

Over 2.5 goals18%

Over 3.5 goals6%

Both teams to score27%

Correct score

0–022.9%
1–017.6%
0–116.1%
1–112.4%
2–06.8%

Recent form

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane

2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympique Béja · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Hammam-Lif · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Marsa · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Metlaoui · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 1-1 (D)

AS Marsa

2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Sahel · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Tunis · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Bizertin · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2-2 AS Marsa (Ligue 1)
2025-11-22T13:00:00.000Z · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1-2 AS Marsa (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	US Ben Guerdane	7	5	2	0	6	17
2	ES Tunis	5	4	0	1	3	12
3	US Monastirienne	6	3	3	0	3	12
4	Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	CA Bizertin	6	3	2	1	2	11
6	Jeunesse Sportive Omrane	7	2	4	1	1	10
7	Club Africain	4	3	0	1	2	9
8	AS Marsa	7	2	3	2	2	9
9	CS Sfaxien	5	2	2	1	2	8
10	Stade Tunisien	5	2	1	2	1	7
11	ES Sahel	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	ES Zarzis	5	2	0	3	0	6
13	CS Hammam-Lif	7	1	2	4	-3	5
14	Olympique Béja	7	0	3	4	-5	3
15	ES Metlaoui	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	ES Hammam-Sousse	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 18%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.