Stade Chedly Zouiten · Analysis updated 06:14 UTC
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Olympique Béja Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and 0.68 for Olympique Béja, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Jeunesse Sportive Omrane the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olympique Béja away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.5%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–010.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 66.8% vs market 57.6%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 57.6% | 66.8% | 1.50 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.4% | 68.2% | 1.47 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 45.8% | 46.0% | 2.17 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.75 | 53.9% | 53.9% | 1.86 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.3% | 22.2% | 4.50 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 31.9% | 31.7% | 3.15 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 78.7% | 77.7% | 1.29 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.20 | 42.4% | 33.2% | 3.01 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Olympique Béja · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CS Hammam-Lif · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs AS Marsa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs ES Metlaoui · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Sahel · 1-1 (D)
Olympique Béja
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Sportive Omrane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Sahel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs ES Tunis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Bizertin · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-23T13:30:00.000Z · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0-0 Olympique Béja (Ligue 1)
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1-2 Olympique Béja (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-10T13:30:00.000Z · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 0-1 Olympique Béja (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-13T13:00:00.000Z · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2-2 Olympique Béja (Ligue 1)
- 2024-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1-2 Olympique Béja (Ligue 1)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Monastir | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Bizertin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | AS Marsa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jeunesse Sportive Omrane win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.