Stade Chedly Zouiten · Analysis updated 00:37 UTC
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs US Monastirienne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and 0.75 for US Monastirienne, a combined total of 1.48. That distribution gives US Monastirienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 23%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
US Monastirienne away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 31% / 37% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Jeunesse Sportive Omrane and 0.75 for US Monastirienne, a combined 1.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.9%
- 0–117.2%
- 1–016.6%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–26.4%
Recent form
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Tunis · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs ES Tunis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Marsa · 2-2 (D)
US Monastirienne
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs CA Bizertin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs ES Zarzis · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs US Ben Guerdane · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Tunisien · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | ES Tunis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Monastir | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | CA Bizertin | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Jeunesse Sportive Omrane | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Club Africain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | AS Marsa | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | CS Sfaxien | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Stade Tunisien | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | ES Zarzis | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | CS Hammam-Lif | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 14 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | ES Metlaoui | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 3 |
| 16 | ES Hammam-Sousse | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.