Stadion Pod Racinom · Analysis updated 02:50 UTC
Jezero vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.38 expected goals for Jezero and 0.60 for Arsenal Tivat, a combined total of 0.98. That distribution gives Arsenal Tivat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 47%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 8% for over 2.5 goals and 14% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 38%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw
46.7% probability
Expected goals
0.38 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jezero home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Tivat away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
53%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–037.7%
- 0–122.6%
- 1–014.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Jezero
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bokelj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 1-2 (L)
Arsenal Tivat
- 2026-10-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grbalj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · Jezero 5-2 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-0 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-1 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2026-02-05T12:00:00.000Z · Jezero 3-1 Arsenal Tivat (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-0 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2025-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-2 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2025-05-24T15:30:00.000Z · Jezero 0-0 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2025-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-0 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2024-12-01T12:00:00.000Z · Jezero 1-0 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2024-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-0 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Mornar | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Buducnost Podgorica | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Dečić | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Petrovac | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Jezero | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 14% and over 2.5 goals at 8%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.