Stadion Pod Racinom · Analysis updated 10:02 UTC
Jezero vs Bokelj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Jezero and 0.80 for Bokelj, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Jezero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.1% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jezero home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jezero to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 32% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Jezero and 0.80 for Bokelj, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–08.9%
Recent form
Jezero
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrovac · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lovćen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mornar · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-4 (L)
Bokelj
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-18T12:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-0 Bokelj (First League)
- 2026-02-25T13:30:00.000Z · Jezero 1-1 Bokelj (First League)
- 2025-10-22T13:30:00.000Z · Jezero 3-3 Bokelj (Cup)
- 2025-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-3 Bokelj (First League)
- 2025-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-2 Bokelj (First League)
- 2025-04-30T12:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-2 Bokelj (First League)
- 2024-12-07T12:00:00.000Z · Jezero 1-2 Bokelj (First League)
- 2024-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-0 Bokelj (First League)
- 2024-08-04T18:30:00.000Z · Jezero 0-2 Bokelj (First League)
- 2020-06-28T16:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-1 Bokelj (Second League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Mornar | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Buducnost Podgorica | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Dečić | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Petrovac | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Jezero | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.