Stadion Pod Racinom · Analysis updated 06:05 UTC
Jezero vs Mladost DG Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Jezero and 1.19 for Mladost DG, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Jezero the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jezero win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jezero home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mladost DG away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Jezero
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bokelj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 1-2 (L)
Mladost DG
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Iskra · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · Jezero 1-0 Mladost DG (First League)
- 2026-05-16T18:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-2 Mladost DG (First League)
- 2026-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · Jezero 1-3 Mladost DG (First League)
- 2025-11-26T13:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-0 Mladost DG (Cup)
- 2025-11-22T13:00:00.000Z · Jezero 1-0 Mladost DG (First League)
- 2025-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · Jezero 1-0 Mladost DG (First League)
- 2025-01-24T11:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-0 Mladost DG (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-1 Mladost DG (First League)
- 2024-03-09T14:00:00.000Z · Jezero 1-0 Mladost DG (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 2 | Sutjeska | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Buducnost Podgorica | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Mornar | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Dečić | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Bokelj | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 8 | Jezero | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jezero win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.