Stadion Pod Racinom · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Jezero vs Mornar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Jezero and 1.55 for Mornar, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Mornar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jezero home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mornar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
Jezero
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bokelj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 1-2 (L)
Mornar
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutjeska · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bokelj · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-0 Mornar (First League)
- 2026-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-2 Mornar (First League)
- 2026-05-06T14:30:00.000Z · Jezero 1-2 Mornar (Cup)
- 2026-04-22T16:30:00.000Z · Jezero 0-1 Mornar (Cup)
- 2026-04-04T17:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-2 Mornar (First League)
- 2025-12-06T12:30:00.000Z · Jezero 2-1 Mornar (First League)
- 2025-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · Jezero 2-2 Mornar (First League)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Jezero 1-0 Mornar (First League)
- 2025-02-22T13:00:00.000Z · Jezero 1-2 Mornar (First League)
- 2024-10-06T16:00:00.000Z · Jezero 0-2 Mornar (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Dečić | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Mornar | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | Jezero | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.