Stadion Pod Racinom · Analysis updated 14:52 UTC
Jezero vs Sutjeska Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Jezero and 1.46 for Sutjeska, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Sutjeska the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sutjeska win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jezero home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sutjeska away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sutjeska to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Jezero and 1.46 for Sutjeska, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Jezero
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bokelj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 1-2 (L)
Sutjeska
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tivat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dečić · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost DG · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 | Buducnost Podgorica | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Dečić | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Mornar | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 8 | Jezero | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sutjeska win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.