Jiangxi Liansheng vs Dalian Kewei Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Jiangxi Liansheng and 0.77 for Dalian Kewei, a combined total of 1.51. That distribution gives Dalian Kewei the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.73 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jiangxi Liansheng home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dalian Kewei away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 31% / 37% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Jiangxi Liansheng and 0.77 for Dalian Kewei, a combined 1.51 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Jiangxi Liansheng win31%

Draw37%

Dalian Kewei win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

63%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals44%

Over 2.5 goals19%

Over 3.5 goals7%

Both teams to score28%

Correct score

0–022.2%
0–117.1%
1–016.3%
1–112.6%
0–26.6%

Recent form

Jiangxi Liansheng

2026-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Shandong Taishan II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Shanghai Port II · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-23T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Chengdu Rongcheng II · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-16T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Xiamen Feilu · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Wuhan Three Towns II · 2-0 (W)

Dalian Kewei

2026-10-17T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Guizhou Zhucheng · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-12T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Langfang Glory City · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Jiangxi Liansheng · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Shenzhen 2028 · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Guizhou Zhucheng · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Shanghai Port II	25	14	4	7	19	46
2	Guizhou Zhucheng	25	14	3	8	14	45
3	Shandong Taishan II	25	13	6	6	13	45
4	Xi'an Ronghai	25	13	5	7	12	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	11	11	3	10	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	11	8	6	11	41
7	Hubei Chufeng Heli	25	10	8	7	7	38
8	Jiangxi Liansheng	25	11	5	9	5	38
9	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	9	9	7	5	36
10	Langfang Glory City	25	8	12	5	-5	36
11	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	7	12	6	6	33
12	Xiamen Feilu	25	8	8	9	1	32
13	Dalian Yingbo B	25	7	11	7	-1	32
14	Rizhao Yuqi	25	6	14	5	-2	32
15	Guangdong Mingtu	25	6	13	6	3	31
16	Shangyu Pterosaur	25	7	8	10	-16	29
17	Qingdao Red Lions	25	6	10	9	0	28
18	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	6	8	11	-8	26
19	Yichun Grand Tiger	25	5	11	9	-9	26
20	Changchun Xidu	25	4	13	8	-12	25
21	Chengdu Rongcheng II	25	5	9	11	-8	24
22	Wuhan Three Towns II	25	5	8	12	-6	23
23	BIT	25	5	7	13	-21	22
24	Shanghai Second	25	2	11	12	-18	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.