· Analysis updated 05:43 UTC
Jincheon vs Geoje Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Jincheon and 1.45 for Geoje Citizen, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Jincheon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jincheon home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Geoje Citizen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jincheon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Jincheon and 1.45 for Geoje Citizen, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Jincheon
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jecheon Citizen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Haman · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongchang United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Geoje Citizen · 4-1 (W)
Geoje Citizen
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Haman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyeongtaek Citizen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Jinju Citizen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jecheon Citizen · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T07:30:00.000Z · Jincheon 4-1 Geoje Citizen (K4 League)
- 2026-04-05T05:00:00.000Z · Jincheon 2-0 Geoje Citizen (K4 League)
K4 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jinju Citizen | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 51 |
| 2 | Jincheon | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Namyangju | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 39 |
| 4 | Geoje Citizen | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 37 |
| 5 | Jungnang Chorus Mustang | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 37 |
| 6 | Geumsan Insam | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 7 | Jecheon Citizen | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | -3 | 31 |
| 8 | Pyeongchang United | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | -3 | 30 |
| 9 | Sejong SA | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | -14 | 29 |
| 10 | Gijang United | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | -12 | 26 |
| 11 | Haman | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -15 | 20 |
| 12 | Pyeongtaek Citizen | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | -21 | 14 |
| 13 | Seosan Pioneer | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -24 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.