Jincheon vs Pyeongtaek Citizen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Jincheon and 1.18 for Pyeongtaek Citizen, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Jincheon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Jincheon win

60.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jincheon home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jincheon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 20% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Jincheon and 1.18 for Pyeongtaek Citizen, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Jincheon win60%

Draw20%

Pyeongtaek Citizen win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.8%
1–19.0%
2–08.3%
1–07.6%
3–17.1%

Recent form

Jincheon

2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-12T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Jecheon Citizen · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Haman · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongchang United · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Geoje Citizen · 4-1 (W)

Pyeongtaek Citizen

2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Geoje Citizen · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Sejong SA · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Namyangju · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Geumsan Insam · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gijang United · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K4 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Jinju Citizen	22	16	3	3	33	51
2	Jincheon	22	12	6	4	22	42
3	Namyangju	23	11	6	6	3	39
4	Jungnang Chorus Mustang	22	11	4	7	13	37
5	Geumsan Insam	22	9	8	5	10	35
6	Geoje Citizen	21	10	4	7	11	34
7	Jecheon Citizen	22	8	7	7	-3	31
8	Pyeongchang United	22	9	3	10	-3	30
9	Sejong SA	22	9	2	11	-14	29
10	Gijang United	22	8	2	12	-12	26
11	Haman	22	6	2	14	-15	20
12	Pyeongtaek Citizen	22	3	5	14	-21	14
13	Seosan Pioneer	22	4	2	16	-24	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jincheon win, at 60.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.