· Analysis updated 20:22 UTC
Jinju Citizen vs Sejong SA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Jinju Citizen and 1.26 for Sejong SA, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Jinju Citizen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jinju Citizen win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sejong SA away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jinju Citizen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Jinju Citizen and 1.26 for Sejong SA, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 65%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–07.5%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Jinju Citizen
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongchang United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Geoje Citizen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Sejong SA · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Namyangju · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Geumsan Insam · 1-1 (D)
Sejong SA
- 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Pyeongtaek Citizen · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Jinju Citizen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Seosan Pioneer · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Jecheon Citizen · 4-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jinju Citizen win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.