· Analysis updated 06:31 UTC
Jitex W vs Linköping W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Jitex W and 1.88 for Linköping W, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Linköping W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Linköping W win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jitex W home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Linköping W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Linköping W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 20% / 22% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Jitex W and 1.88 for Linköping W, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–36.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 46.1% vs market 42.7%, edge +3.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 42.7% | 46.1% | 2.17 | +3.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.18 | 79.4% | 80.0% | 1.25 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.55 | 57.5% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.3% | 22.3% | 4.48 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 4.40 | 20.2% | 20.0% | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.20 | 42.6% | 42.3% | 2.36 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.1% | 77.7% | 1.29 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 57.3% | 53.9% | 1.86 | -3.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Jitex W
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Linköping W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vittsjö W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Häcken II W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Örebro SK W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Göteborg W · 1-1 (D)
Linköping W
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jitex W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Norrköping W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Örebro SK W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Husqvarna W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · Jitex W 2-1 Linköping W (Elitettan)
- 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · Jitex W 1-1 Linköping W (Elitettan)
Elitettan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elfsborg W | 23 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 34 | 54 |
| 2 | KIF Örebro W | 22 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 50 |
| 3 | Göteborg W | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 32 | 48 |
| 4 | Linköping W | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 43 |
| 5 | Umeå W | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 41 |
| 6 | Husqvarna W | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | -2 | 32 |
| 7 | Trelleborg W | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | -7 | 32 |
| 8 | Jitex W | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Örebro SK W | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | -13 | 26 |
| 10 | Enskede W | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 25 |
| 11 | Alingsås W | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -9 | 22 |
| 12 | Gamla Upsala W | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 17 |
| 13 | Sandviken W | 22 | 2 | 5 | 15 | -38 | 11 |
| 14 | Häcken II W | 22 | 2 | 2 | 18 | -25 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Linköping W win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.