· Analysis updated 04:18 UTC
Jiul Petroşani vs Minerul Lupeni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Jiul Petroşani and 0.99 for Minerul Lupeni, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Jiul Petroşani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jiul Petroşani home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Minerul Lupeni away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jiul Petroşani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 31% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Jiul Petroşani and 0.99 for Minerul Lupeni, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–113.0%
- 2–07.1%
Recent form
Jiul Petroşani
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vulturii Fărcăşeşti · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Targu Jiu · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CS U Craiova II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Bascov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Hartiesti · 5-0 (W)
Minerul Lupeni
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Păușești · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Filiaşi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Oltul Curtişoara · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vulturii Fărcăşeşti · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 25 |
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 3 | CSM Targu Jiu | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | CS U Craiova II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Filiaşi | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Jiul Petroşani | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Oltul Curtişoara | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 8 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Unirea Bascov | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Păușești | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Academica Balș | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Petrolul Hartiesti | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -32 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.