· Analysis updated 20:21 UTC
JK Tabasalu vs Johvi Phoenix Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for JK Tabasalu and 1.99 for Johvi Phoenix, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Johvi Phoenix the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
JK Tabasalu home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Johvi Phoenix away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Johvi Phoenix to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 38% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for JK Tabasalu and 1.99 for Johvi Phoenix, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.1%
Recent form
JK Tabasalu
- 2026-10-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Luunja · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Johvi Phoenix · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Legion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev II · 1-4 (L)
Johvi Phoenix
- 2026-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Kalev · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Luunja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JK Tabasalu · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Esiliiga B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narva U21 | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 73 |
| 2 | Levadia U19 | 33 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 65 |
| 3 | Phoenix | 34 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 57 |
| 4 | Luunja | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 56 |
| 5 | Tulevik | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 53 |
| 6 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 33 | 50 |
| 7 | Tartu Kalev | 34 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 50 |
| 8 | JK Tabasalu | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | -38 | 37 |
| 9 | Tallinna Kalev II | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -17 | 30 |
| 10 | Legion | 34 | 3 | 4 | 27 | -103 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.