JK Tabasalu vs Legion Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for JK Tabasalu and 1.93 for Legion, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives JK Tabasalu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

JK Tabasalu win

51.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.55 – 1.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

JK Tabasalu home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Legion away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

JK Tabasalu win52%

Draw19%

Legion win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals82%

Over 3.5 goals65%

Both teams to score79%

Correct score

2–17.1%
2–26.9%
3–16.1%
3–25.8%
1–15.6%

Recent form

JK Tabasalu

2026-10-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Luunja · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Johvi Phoenix · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Legion · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev II · 1-4 (L)

Legion

2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Levadia U19 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 0-12 (L)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs JK Tabasalu · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-10T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Kalev · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 1-1 Legion (Esiliiga B)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 0-2 Legion (Esiliiga B)
2026-05-27T16:00:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 2-3 Legion (Esiliiga B)
2026-04-24T15:00:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 2-3 Legion (Esiliiga B)
2025-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 3-0 Legion (Esiliiga B)
2025-07-11T17:00:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 1-4 Legion (Esiliiga B)
2025-06-01T09:30:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 2-2 Legion (Esiliiga B)
2025-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 1-0 Legion (Esiliiga B)
2025-02-15T12:00:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 0-2 Legion (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-11-11T10:30:00.000Z · JK Tabasalu 3-0 Legion (Esiliiga A)

Esiliiga B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Narva U21	34	23	4	7	39	73
2	Levadia U19	33	21	2	10	30	65
3	Phoenix	34	18	3	13	0	57
4	Luunja	33	17	5	11	25	56
5	Tulevik	34	16	5	13	18	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	15	5	13	33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	16	2	16	13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	11	4	19	-38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	8	6	19	-17	30
10	Legion	34	3	4	27	-103	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is JK Tabasalu win, at 51.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.