Tabasalu Arena · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
JK Tabasalu vs Tamper Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for JK Tabasalu and 2.02 for Tamper, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Tamper the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 2.02
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
JK Tabasalu home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tamper away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tamper to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 36% / 21% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for JK Tabasalu and 2.02 for Tamper, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.3%
- 2–17.2%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
JK Tabasalu
- 2026-10-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Luunja · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Johvi Phoenix · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Legion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev II · 1-4 (L)
Tamper
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Laagri · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs JK Tabasalu · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viimsi · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rumori Calcio · 4-2 (W)
- 2024-10-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalju Nomme · 0-9 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.