· Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
John Hughes vs Grenades Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for John Hughes and 1.68 for Grenades, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Grenades the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Grenades win
59.5% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
John Hughes home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Grenades away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Grenades to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 17% / 24% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for John Hughes and 1.68 for Grenades, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.8%
- 0–212.4%
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
John Hughes
- 2026-04-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs All Saints United · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-04-12T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Green City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-05T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Potters Tigers · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-23T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Attacking Saints · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-14T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Old Road · 2-10 (L)
Grenades
- 2026-05-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs All Saints United · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Pigotts Bullets · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-29T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Old Road · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Attacking Saints · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-04-14T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Garden Stars · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Green City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | All Saints United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Hoppers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Pigotts Bullets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Garden Stars | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Grenades | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Freemansville | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Old Road | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Potters Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Grenades win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.