Sultan Ibrahim Stadium · Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Johor Darul Takzim FC and 1.75 for Chelsea, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Chelsea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chelsea away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chelsea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 38% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Johor Darul Takzim FC and 1.75 for Chelsea, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.4%
Recent form
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Chelsea
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brentford · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.