Sultan Ibrahim Stadium · Analysis updated 22:48 UTC
Johor Darul Takzim FC vs Kuching FA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.03 expected goals for Johor Darul Takzim FC and 1.00 for Kuching FA, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Johor Darul Takzim FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Johor Darul Takzim FC win
77.9% probability
Expected goals
3.03 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Kuching FA away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Johor Darul Takzim FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.03 goals for Johor Darul Takzim FC and 1.00 for Kuching FA, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 60%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–06.3%
Recent form
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Kuching FA
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Selangor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:15:00.000Z · A vs DPMM FC Brunei · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kitchee · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Kelantan City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tampines Rovers · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 18 |
| 2 | Selangor | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | DPMM FC Brunei | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Sabah FA | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Melaka | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Kuala Lumpur FA | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 6 |
| 8 | Negeri Sembilan | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | Terengganu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Imigresen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 11 | Penang | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Kelantan Red Warrior FC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Johor Darul Takzim FC win, at 77.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.