Johvi Phoenix vs Tallinna Kalev II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.90 expected goals for Johvi Phoenix and 2.07 for Tallinna Kalev II, a combined total of 4.98. That distribution gives Johvi Phoenix the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Johvi Phoenix win

55.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.90 – 2.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Johvi Phoenix home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tallinna Kalev II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Johvi Phoenix to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 17% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.90 goals for Johvi Phoenix and 2.07 for Tallinna Kalev II, a combined 4.98 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Johvi Phoenix win55%

Draw17%

Tallinna Kalev II win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals96%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals73%

Both teams to score82%

Correct score

2–26.3%
3–26.0%
2–16.0%
3–15.8%
4–24.4%

Recent form

Johvi Phoenix

2026-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Legion · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Kalev · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Luunja · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JK Tabasalu · 3-2 (W)

Tallinna Kalev II

2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Tulevik · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Narva U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Johvi Phoenix · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JK Tabasalu · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · Johvi Phoenix 4-3 Tallinna Kalev II (Esiliiga B)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · Johvi Phoenix 1-3 Tallinna Kalev II (Esiliiga B)
2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · Johvi Phoenix 2-1 Tallinna Kalev II (Esiliiga B)
2026-03-14T15:00:00.000Z · Johvi Phoenix 2-1 Tallinna Kalev II (Esiliiga B)

Esiliiga B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Narva U21	33	22	4	7	38	70
2	Levadia U19	33	21	2	10	30	65
3	Phoenix	34	18	3	13	0	57
4	Luunja	33	17	5	11	25	56
5	Tulevik	33	16	5	12	19	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	15	5	13	33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	16	2	16	13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	11	4	19	-38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	8	6	19	-17	30
10	Legion	34	3	4	27	-103	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Johvi Phoenix win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.