Jonava vs Dainava Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Jonava and 1.25 for Dainava, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Dainava the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.98 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jonava home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dainava to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 29% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Jonava and 1.25 for Dainava, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Jonava win29%

Draw29%

Dainava win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–113.4%
1–113.2%
0–010.7%
1–010.6%
0–28.3%

Recent form

Jonava

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Atmosfera · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Babrungas · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tauras · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 0-2 (L)

Dainava

2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Minija · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Žalgiris II · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atmosfera · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Babrungas	28	22	4	2	39	70
2	Minija	27	22	1	4	53	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	18	3	6	21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	15	4	9	8	49
5	BFA	28	14	4	10	1	46
6	Tauras	27	13	5	9	11	44
7	Dainava	28	12	8	8	11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	14	2	12	-2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	8	37
10	Jonava	28	8	6	14	-7	30
11	Garliava	28	8	5	15	-3	29
12	Kauno Žalgiris II	28	8	2	18	-21	26
13	Hegelmann II	28	8	2	18	-29	26
14	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	28	5	3	20	-33	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.