Sportpark De Toekomst · Referee Rick Sturm, Netherlands · Analysis updated 15:35 UTC
Jong Ajax vs Emmen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.64 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Emmen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jong Ajax home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Emmen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Jong Ajax
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs VVV Venlo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Roda · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong Utrecht · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Waalwijk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Almere City FC · 1-0 (W)
Emmen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dordrecht · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Waalwijk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC OSS · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 4-6 Emmen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2026-02-23T19:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 0-0 Emmen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 0-1 Emmen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-03-11T19:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 0-2 Emmen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2024-11-08T19:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 2-4 Emmen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2024-03-29T19:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 2-4 Emmen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 3-3 Emmen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2022-02-25T19:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 1-2 Emmen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2021-12-06T19:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 1-0 Emmen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2021-07-17T12:00:00.000Z · Jong Ajax 1-4 Emmen (Friendlies Clubs)
Eerste Divisie table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.