Football Federation Training Ground · Analysis updated 17:47 UTC
Jong Holland vs Inter Willemstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Jong Holland and 1.38 for Inter Willemstad, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Jong Holland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Jong Holland win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jong Holland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Jong Holland and 1.38 for Inter Willemstad, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–07.4%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Jong Holland
Inter Willemstad
- 2026-07-28T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Del Este · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs St. John's · 5-2 (W)
- 2024-02-18T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Centro Barber · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-01-21T23:45:00.000Z · A vs Jong Holland · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-01-14T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Victory Boys · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-01-21T23:45:00.000Z · Jong Holland 1-0 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
- 2023-10-28T00:00:00.000Z · Jong Holland 2-4 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
- 2022-10-08T00:00:00.000Z · Jong Holland 3-1 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
- 2022-09-08T23:00:00.000Z · Jong Holland 2-0 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
- 2022-07-10T21:30:00.000Z · Jong Holland 3-1 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
- 2022-04-09T00:00:00.000Z · Jong Holland 3-3 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
- 2021-12-19T22:00:00.000Z · Jong Holland 1-0 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
- 2021-12-07T00:00:00.000Z · Jong Holland 1-0 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
- 2021-11-25T00:00:00.000Z · Jong Holland 2-3 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
- 2021-08-29T22:00:00.000Z · Jong Holland 3-3 Inter Willemstad (Curaçao Sekshon Pagá)
Curaçao Sekshon Pagá table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jong Colombia | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | Scherpenheuvel | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Centro Dominguito | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 4 | Inter Willemstad | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Jong Holland | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | Victory Boys | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | SUBT | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 16 |
| 8 | UNDEBA | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 15 |
| 9 | Atlétiko Saliña | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -20 | 8 |
| 10 | Centro Barber | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Jong Holland win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.