Jong PSV U21 vs Dordrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.35 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Jong PSV U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jong PSV U21 win

63.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.58 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jong PSV U21 home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dordrecht away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Jong PSV U21 win64%

Draw18%

Dordrecht win19%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–18.8%
3–17.6%
1–16.9%
2–06.5%
2–26.0%

Recent form

Jong PSV U21

2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vitesse · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Helmond Sport · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Den Bosch · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong Ajax · 1-1 (D)

Dordrecht

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Emmen · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Almere City FC · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC OSS · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Eindhoven · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-27T19:00:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)
2025-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 2-1 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)
2025-02-24T19:00:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 1-2 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)
2024-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 0-2 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)
2024-02-26T19:00:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 0-1 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)
2023-11-10T19:00:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 4-1 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)
2023-04-07T18:00:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 0-1 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)
2022-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 1-0 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)
2022-05-06T18:00:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)
2021-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · Jong PSV U21 1-1 Dordrecht (Eerste Divisie)

Eerste Divisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heracles	11	9	1	1	23	28
2	Almere City FC	11	7	1	3	14	22
3	VVV Venlo	11	7	1	3	12	22
4	Emmen	11	7	1	3	5	22
5	NAC Breda	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Roda	11	5	4	2	3	19
7	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	1	17
8	FC Volendam	11	5	1	5	5	16
9	MVV	11	5	1	5	-11	16
10	Waalwijk	11	3	6	2	4	15
11	Jong AZ	11	4	2	5	4	14
12	Den Bosch	11	4	2	5	-3	14
13	Jong PSV U21	11	3	4	4	-3	13
14	FC OSS	11	4	0	7	-1	12
15	FC Eindhoven	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Jong Ajax	11	3	2	6	-11	11
17	De Graafschap	11	3	2	6	-11	11
18	Dordrecht	11	3	2	6	-13	11
19	Helmond Sport	11	2	3	6	-5	9
20	Jong Utrecht	11	2	1	8	-8	7
1	Heracles	10	8	1	1	19	25
2	Almere City FC	10	7	1	2	15	22
3	VVV Venlo	10	7	0	3	12	21
4	Emmen	10	6	1	3	4	19
5	NAC Breda	10	5	2	3	1	17
6	Roda	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	MVV	10	5	1	4	-7	16
8	FC Volendam	10	5	0	5	5	15
9	Waalwijk	10	3	5	2	4	14
10	Vitesse	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	4	13
12	Jong PSV U21	10	3	4	3	-2	13
13	FC OSS	10	4	0	6	0	12
14	Den Bosch	10	3	2	5	-4	11
15	FC Eindhoven	10	3	2	5	-7	11
16	De Graafschap	10	3	2	5	-10	11
17	Helmond Sport	10	2	3	5	-3	9
18	Jong Ajax	10	2	2	6	-12	8
19	Dordrecht	10	2	2	6	-14	8
20	Jong Utrecht	10	2	1	7	-7	7
1	Heracles	1	1	0	0	4	3
2	NAC Breda	1	1	0	0	2	3
3	Den Bosch	1	1	0	0	1	3
4	Dordrecht	1	1	0	0	1	3
5	Emmen	1	1	0	0	1	3
6	Roda	1	1	0	0	1	3
7	Vitesse	1	1	0	0	1	3
8	Jong Ajax	1	1	0	0	1	3
9	VVV Venlo	1	0	1	0	0	1
10	FC Volendam	1	0	1	0	0	1
11	Waalwijk	1	0	1	0	0	1
12	Jong AZ	1	0	1	0	0	1
13	De Graafschap	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	FC Eindhoven	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Almere City FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	FC OSS	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Jong PSV U21	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Jong Utrecht	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Helmond Sport	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	MVV	1	0	0	1	-4	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	De Graafschap	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	VVV Venlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Den Bosch	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Dordrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	FC Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Emmen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Helmond Sport	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	MVV	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Almere City FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FC OSS	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	FC Volendam	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Waalwijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	NAC Breda	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Roda	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Vitesse	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Heracles	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Jong PSV U21	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Jong Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Jong AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Jong Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jong PSV U21 win, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.