Jonkopings Sodra vs Skövde AIK Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.89 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Jonkopings Sodra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jonkopings Sodra win

50.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.89

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jonkopings Sodra home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Skövde AIK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.89 for Skövde AIK, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Jonkopings Sodra win51%

Draw26%

Skövde AIK win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.8%
1–112.3%
2–010.2%
0–09.4%
2–19.1%

Recent form

Jonkopings Sodra

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskilsminne · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Utsikten · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Skövde AIK · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atvidabergs FF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kristianstad · 0-0 (D)

Skövde AIK

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Malmo · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Utsikten · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Jonkopings Sodra · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Trollhättan · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Södra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trelleborg	27	18	6	3	31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	28	16	4	8	18	52
3	Lund	28	13	8	7	19	47
4	Atvidabergs FF	27	13	8	6	13	47
5	AFC Malmo	28	12	8	8	10	44
6	Rosengård	28	10	10	8	3	40
7	Jonkopings Sodra	28	11	6	11	5	39
8	Trollhättan	28	10	8	10	0	38
9	Tvååker	28	10	8	10	-3	38
10	Olympic	28	11	3	14	-3	36
11	Skövde AIK	28	8	11	9	-9	35
12	Kristianstad	28	9	6	13	-7	33
13	Eskilsminne	28	9	6	13	-12	33
14	Laholm	28	9	5	14	-6	32
15	Angelholms FF	28	6	9	13	-14	27
16	Utsikten	28	2	6	20	-45	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jonkopings Sodra win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.