Jonkopings Sodra vs Tvååker Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.15 for Tvååker, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Jonkopings Sodra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jonkopings Sodra win

47.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jonkopings Sodra home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tvååker away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.15 for Tvååker, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Jonkopings Sodra win48%

Draw25%

Tvååker win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–010.2%
2–19.4%
2–08.2%
0–17.4%

Recent form

Jonkopings Sodra

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskilsminne · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Utsikten · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Skövde AIK · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Atvidabergs FF · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kristianstad · 0-0 (D)

Tvååker

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosengård · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Laholm · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hässleholms IF · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Trollhättan · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Trelleborg · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Södra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trelleborg	27	18	6	3	31	60
2	Hässleholms IF	28	16	4	8	18	52
3	Lund	28	13	8	7	19	47
4	Atvidabergs FF	27	13	8	6	13	47
5	AFC Malmo	28	12	8	8	10	44
6	Rosengård	28	10	10	8	3	40
7	Jonkopings Sodra	28	11	6	11	5	39
8	Trollhättan	28	10	8	10	0	38
9	Tvååker	28	10	8	10	-3	38
10	Olympic	28	11	3	14	-3	36
11	Skövde AIK	28	8	11	9	-9	35
12	Kristianstad	28	9	6	13	-7	33
13	Eskilsminne	28	9	6	13	-12	33
14	Laholm	28	9	5	14	-6	32
15	Angelholms FF	28	6	9	13	-14	27
16	Utsikten	28	2	6	20	-45	12

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jonkopings Sodra win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.