Jonsered vs Hestrafor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Jonsered and 1.71 for Hestrafor, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Jonsered the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.71

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jonsered home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jonsered to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Jonsered and 1.71 for Hestrafor, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Jonsered win42%

Draw22%

Hestrafor win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–18.9%
2–18.3%
1–27.6%
2–27.1%
1–05.2%

Recent form

Jonsered

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Böljan · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hestrafor · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Åstorp · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torslanda · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Qviding FIF · 0-1 (L)

Hestrafor

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Division 2 - Västra Götaland table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Landvetter IS	24	17	3	4	23	54
2	Dalstorps	24	13	7	4	21	46
3	Jonsered	24	12	6	6	3	42
4	Hestrafor	24	12	5	7	9	41
5	Lindome	24	11	4	9	6	37
6	Västra Frölunda	24	10	7	7	6	37
7	Böljan	24	9	7	8	4	34
8	Qviding FIF	24	10	4	10	0	34
9	Onsala	24	8	6	10	-4	30
10	Torslanda	24	7	7	10	-3	28
11	Kongahälla	24	7	6	11	-10	27
12	Åstorp	24	7	5	12	-12	26
13	Galtabacks	24	5	5	14	-8	20
14	Astrio	24	2	4	18	-35	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.