· Analysis updated 06:29 UTC
Jonsered vs Onsala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Jonsered and 1.48 for Onsala, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Jonsered the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jonsered home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Onsala away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jonsered to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Jonsered and 1.48 for Onsala, a combined 3.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.3%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Jonsered
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Böljan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hestrafor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Åstorp · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torslanda · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Qviding FIF · 0-1 (L)
Onsala
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hestrafor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Qviding FIF · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Astrio · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Galtabacks · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Västra Frölunda · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · Jonsered 2-1 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
- 2026-04-26T11:00:00.000Z · Jonsered 3-2 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
- 2025-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · Jonsered 1-0 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
- 2025-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · Jonsered 3-3 Onsala (Division 2 - Västra Götaland)
Division 2 - Västra Götaland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Landvetter IS | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 54 |
| 2 | Dalstorps | 24 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 21 | 46 |
| 3 | Jonsered | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 42 |
| 4 | Hestrafor | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Lindome | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 37 |
| 6 | Västra Frölunda | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 37 |
| 7 | Böljan | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 34 |
| 8 | Qviding FIF | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 34 |
| 9 | Onsala | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 | Torslanda | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Kongahälla | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 27 |
| 12 | Åstorp | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -12 | 26 |
| 13 | Galtabacks | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -8 | 20 |
| 14 | Astrio | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | -35 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.