Jordan vs Iraq Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Jordan and 0.98 for Iraq, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Jordan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jordan win

57.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Jordan home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iraq away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Jordan win58%

Draw23%

Iraq win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–010.9%
1–110.7%
2–010.1%
2–19.9%
3–06.2%

Recent form

Jordan

2026-10-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Syria · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-28T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentina · 1-3 (L)
2026-06-23T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria · 1-2 (L)
2026-06-17T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria · 1-3 (L)

Iraq

2026-06-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal · 0-5 (L)
2026-06-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 0-3 (L)
2026-06-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Norway · 1-4 (L)
2026-06-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 0-2 (L)
2026-06-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2025-12-12T14:30:00.000Z · Jordan 1-0 Iraq (Arab Cup)
2025-06-10T18:15:00.000Z · Jordan 0-1 Iraq (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
2024-11-14T16:15:00.000Z · Jordan 0-0 Iraq (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
2024-01-29T11:30:00.000Z · Jordan 3-2 Iraq (Asian Cup)
2023-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · Jordan 2-2 Iraq (Friendlies)
2020-11-12T15:00:00.000Z · Jordan 0-0 Iraq (Friendlies)
2019-03-26T15:00:00.000Z · Jordan 2-3 Iraq (Friendlies)
2017-06-01T10:00:00.000Z · Jordan 0-1 Iraq (Friendlies)
2015-01-12T09:00:00.000Z · Jordan 0-1 Iraq (Asian Cup)

Arab Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palestine	3	1	2	0	1	5
2	Syria	3	1	2	0	1	5
3	Tunisia	3	1	1	1	2	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	-4	1
1	Morocco	3	2	1	0	3	7
2	Saudi Arabia	3	2	0	1	2	6
3	Oman	3	1	1	1	0	4
4	Comoros	3	0	0	3	-5	0
1	Jordan	3	3	0	0	6	9
2	United Arab Emirates	3	1	1	1	1	4
3	Egypt	3	0	2	1	-3	2
4	Kuwait	3	0	1	2	-4	1
1	Algeria	3	2	1	0	6	7
2	Iraq	3	2	0	1	1	6
3	Bahrain	3	1	0	2	-3	3
4	Sudan	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jordan win, at 57.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.