King Abdullah II Stadium · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Jordan vs Syria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Jordan and 1.64 for Syria, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Syria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Syria win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Jordan home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Syria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Syria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 25% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Jordan and 1.64 for Syria, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Jordan
- 2026-10-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Syria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-28T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentina · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-23T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-17T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria · 1-3 (L)
Syria
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Belarus · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-31T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Afghanistan · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-12-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Morocco · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-12-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-12-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Syria win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.