· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
JOS Watergraafsmeer vs TEC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for JOS Watergraafsmeer and 2.18 for TEC, a combined total of 3.94. That distribution gives TEC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
TEC win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
JOS Watergraafsmeer home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TEC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TEC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 32% / 21% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for JOS Watergraafsmeer and 2.18 for TEC, a combined 3.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
JOS Watergraafsmeer
- 2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NEO · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NEO · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-06-07T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior '31 · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-06-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior '31 · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-06-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Heino · 1-0 (W)
TEC
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Staphorst · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eemdijk · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs JOS Watergraafsmeer · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hercules · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 4-4 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is TEC win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.