· Analysis updated 16:47 UTC
JSK vs APR Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for JSK and 1.37 for APR, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives JSK the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
JSK home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates JSK to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for JSK and 1.37 for APR, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
JSK
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs APR · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs APR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Don Bosco · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Maniema Union · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Simba · 1-0 (W)
APR
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Marines · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs JSK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JSK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vipers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · JSK 0-3 APR (CAF Champions League)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · JSK 1-0 APR (CAF Champions League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.