Complejo Deportivo Juan Pablo II · Referee Edwin Ordonez, Peru · Analysis updated 23:31 UTC
Juan Pablo II College vs ADT Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Juan Pablo II College and 0.75 for ADT, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Juan Pablo II College the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Juan Pablo II College win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juan Pablo II College home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ADT away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juan Pablo II College to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 17% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Juan Pablo II College and 0.75 for ADT, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.6%
- 1–010.9%
- 3–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Juan Pablo II College
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
ADT
- 2026-10-16T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Cajamarca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-01T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Cristal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Juan Pablo II College win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.