Complejo Deportivo Juan Pablo II · Referee Joel Alarcon, Peru · Analysis updated 01:02 UTC
Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Lima Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Juan Pablo II College and 1.38 for Alianza Lima, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Alianza Lima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juan Pablo II College home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alianza Lima away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Alianza Lima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Juan Pablo II College and 1.38 for Alianza Lima, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Juan Pablo II College
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
Alianza Lima
- 2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T01:00:00.000Z · H vs ADT · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 1-1 Alianza Lima (Primera División)
- 2026-03-21T23:30:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 0-2 Alianza Lima (Primera División)
- 2025-08-01T00:00:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 1-2 Alianza Lima (Primera División)
- 2025-02-22T01:00:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 0-1 Alianza Lima (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.