Complejo Deportivo Juan Pablo II · Referee Micke Palomino, Peru · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Juan Pablo II College vs Cienciano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Juan Pablo II College and 1.85 for Cienciano, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Cienciano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cienciano win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juan Pablo II College home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cienciano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cienciano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 30% / 23% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Juan Pablo II College and 1.85 for Cienciano, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Juan Pablo II College
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
Cienciano
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T20:15:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 2-0 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2026-02-08T20:30:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 1-6 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2025-11-02T23:00:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 1-2 Cienciano (Primera División)
- 2025-06-27T20:15:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 2-2 Cienciano (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cienciano win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.