Estadio Complejo Juan Pablo II · Analysis updated 09:02 UTC
Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Juan Pablo II College and 1.34 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Juan Pablo II College the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juan Pablo II College home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Garcilaso away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juan Pablo II College to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Juan Pablo II College and 1.34 for Deportivo Garcilaso, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Juan Pablo II College
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
Deportivo Garcilaso
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Universitario · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Boys · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Grau · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cusco · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.