Estadio Complejo Juan Pablo II · Referee Roberto Perez Gutierrez · Analysis updated 19:46 UTC
Juan Pablo II College vs UCV Moquegua Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Juan Pablo II College and 0.85 for UCV Moquegua, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Juan Pablo II College the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Juan Pablo II College win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juan Pablo II College home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UCV Moquegua away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juan Pablo II College to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Juan Pablo II College and 0.85 for UCV Moquegua, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–010.3%
- 0–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 56.9% vs market 45.8%, edge +11.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.8% | 56.9% | 1.76 | +11.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.2% | 72.6% | 1.38 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 49.7% | 49.8% | 2.01 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.00 | 22.7% | 22.8% | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.0% | 77.1% | 1.30 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.6% | 27.3% | 3.66 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.8% | 50.1% | 2.00 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.2% | 43.1% | 2.32 | -11.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Juan Pablo II College
- 2026-10-25T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitario · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Boys · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Comerciantes Unidos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs UCV Moquegua · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 2-1 (W)
UCV Moquegua
- 2026-10-18T18:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Cajamarca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cienciano · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Juan Pablo II College · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cusco · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T20:30:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 4-0 UCV Moquegua (Primera División)
- 2026-04-14T18:00:00.000Z · Juan Pablo II College 0-3 UCV Moquegua (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Juan Pablo II College win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.