Junak vs HNK Zadar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Junak and 1.53 for HNK Zadar, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives HNK Zadar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

HNK Zadar win

49.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.53

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Junak home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Zadar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Junak win25%

Draw26%

HNK Zadar win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

0–112.2%
1–112.2%
0–29.3%
1–29.3%
0–08.0%

Recent form

Junak

2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kamen Ivanbegovina · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Val Kaštel Stari · 2-5 (L)
2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs HNK Zadar · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Omiš · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Primorac Biograd · 1-0 (W)

HNK Zadar

2026-08-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kustosija · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Primorac Biograd · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-23T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Neretvanac Opuzen · 5-1 (W)
2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Junak · 1-0 (W)
2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs GOŠK Dubrovnik · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-16T15:30:00.000Z · Junak 0-1 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)
2025-11-15T12:30:00.000Z · Junak 1-1 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)
2025-05-17T15:30:00.000Z · Junak 2-0 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)
2024-11-16T12:30:00.000Z · Junak 3-1 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)
2024-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · Junak 2-2 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)
2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Junak 2-2 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)
2023-03-11T14:00:00.000Z · Junak 0-3 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)
2022-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · Junak 1-1 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)
2022-05-28T15:30:00.000Z · Junak 0-4 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)
2021-11-27T12:30:00.000Z · Junak 2-2 HNK Zadar (Third NL - Jug)

Third NL - Jug table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zagora	30	22	3	5	39	69
2	Neretva Metković	30	19	6	5	32	63
3	HNK Zadar	30	18	6	6	38	60
4	Sloga Mravince	30	13	9	8	11	48
5	Junak	30	12	6	12	3	42
6	Jadran KS	30	11	6	13	-13	39
7	GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica	30	10	8	12	-5	38
8	Vodice	30	10	7	13	-4	37
9	Primorac Biograd	30	10	7	13	-7	37
10	Hrvatski vitez	30	11	3	16	-12	36
11	GOŠK Dubrovnik	30	8	11	11	-2	35
12	Val Kaštel Stari	30	10	5	15	-13	35
13	Sibenik	30	9	7	14	-17	34
14	Omiš	30	9	6	15	-6	33
15	Neretvanac Opuzen	30	9	6	15	-13	33
16	Kamen Ivanbegovina	30	8	6	16	-31	30

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is HNK Zadar win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.