Estadio Juan Ramon Breve Vargas · Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
Juticalpa vs Atlético Choloma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Juticalpa and 1.37 for Atlético Choloma, a combined total of 2.51. That distribution gives Atlético Choloma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juticalpa home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Choloma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 27% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Juticalpa and 1.37 for Atlético Choloma, a combined 2.51 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 51%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.1%
Recent form
Juticalpa
- 2026-10-17T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Marathon · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-14T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Independiente · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Génesis · 0-3 (L)
Atlético Choloma
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Olancho | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Independiente | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.