Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena · Analysis updated 17:38 UTC
Juventud Antoniana vs Tucuman Central Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Juventud Antoniana and 0.65 for Tucuman Central, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Juventud Antoniana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Juventud Antoniana win
58.1% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juventud Antoniana home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tucuman Central away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juventud Antoniana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 26% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Juventud Antoniana and 0.65 for Tucuman Central, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.4%
- 2–013.2%
- 0–011.5%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Juventud Antoniana
- 2026-09-19T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cipolletti · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Kimberley Mar del Plata · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Argentino Monte Maíz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-22T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Mitre · 0-0 (D)
Tucuman Central
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Resistencia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Unidos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Escobar · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Juventud Antoniana win, at 58.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.