Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo · Analysis updated 18:28 UTC
Juventud Torremolinos vs Águilas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Juventud Torremolinos and 1.95 for Águilas, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Águilas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.3% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juventud Torremolinos home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Águilas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 36% / 22% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Juventud Torremolinos and 1.95 for Águilas, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
Juventud Torremolinos
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Alcorcon · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Algeciras · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Hércules · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaragoza · 3-4 (L)
Águilas
- 2026-10-17T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Cartagena · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hércules · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Algeciras · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villarreal II | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 20 |
| 2 | Zaragoza | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Real Jaén | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Cartagena | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Alcorcon | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 7 | Ibiza | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Hércules | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Real Madrid II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Huesca | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Antequera | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 12 | Gimnastic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Atlético Madrid II | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Algeciras | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Sant Andreu | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Rayo Majadahonda | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Águilas | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 7 |
| 19 | Juventud Torremolinos | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Teruel | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.