Estadio Municipal El Pozuelo · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Juventud Torremolinos vs Real Murcia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Juventud Torremolinos and 2.17 for Real Murcia, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Real Murcia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Real Murcia win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juventud Torremolinos home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Murcia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Murcia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 20% / 20% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Juventud Torremolinos and 2.17 for Real Murcia, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.9%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–17.4%
- 1–37.0%
Recent form
Juventud Torremolinos
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Alcorcon · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Algeciras · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Hércules · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zaragoza · 3-4 (L)
Real Murcia
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Villarreal II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Alcorcon | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Cartagena | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Real Jaén | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Hércules | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Antequera | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Ibiza | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Huesca | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Águilas | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Rayo Majadahonda | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Teruel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 2 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Murcia win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.