Estadio Mario Sebastian Diez · Analysis updated 11:08 UTC
Juventud Unida Univ. vs Santamarina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Juventud Unida Univ. and 0.50 for Santamarina, a combined total of 1.65. That distribution gives Juventud Unida Univ. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Juventud Unida Univ. win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Juventud Unida Univ. home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Santamarina away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Juventud Unida Univ. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 32% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Juventud Unida Univ. and 0.50 for Santamarina, a combined 1.65 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–022.1%
- 0–019.2%
- 2–012.7%
- 1–111.0%
- 0–19.6%
Recent form
Juventud Unida Univ.
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de Mayo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-1 (L)
Santamarina
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Brava · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Circulo Deportivo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Juventud Unida Univ. win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.